User Guide
How to Use BracketEdge
Most people in your pool are picking the same teams. BracketEdge shows you where
to be different and why it's worth it. It takes about five minutes to use, and
you leave with a bracket that actually has a shot at winning.
01 The Core Idea
Everyone in your pool is picking the same teams. That's the problem.
When the popular 1-seed wins, you get the same points as 80% of your pool. You
don't gain any ground. To actually win, you need to be right on picks that most
people got wrong. That's the whole game.
BracketEdge measures this with a number called leverage. It's
the gap between what a stats model thinks a team's chances are and how many people
are actually picking them. A big positive gap means the crowd is sleeping on a team.
That's where the opportunity is.
Model Win %
What the numbers say
A prediction based on how efficient each team has been all season, where they
were picked in the preseason, and how hot they are heading into the tournament.
Built from 20+ years of NCAA data.
Public Pick %
What everyone else is doing
How many people in major public pools like ESPN and CBS are picking this team
to advance. When most people agree on something, there's usually less upside
in agreeing with them.
Positive Leverage
The crowd is sleeping on them
The model likes this team more than the public does. If you pick them and they
win, you gain ground on most of your pool. These are the picks worth paying
attention to.
Negative Leverage
Everyone already picked them
If this team wins, you keep pace with the crowd but don't gain anything. And
if they lose, so does most of the pool. Popular picks have a ceiling.
02 Reading the Data
Three numbers. Here's what they mean.
Hover over any team in the bracket and you'll see this. It takes about five seconds
to read once you know what you're looking at.
Leverage (model − public)
💡
Team A is the interesting pick. The model
gives them a 58% chance to win, but only 31% of people are picking them. If they
win, you jump most of your pool. That 27-point gap is exactly the kind of opportunity
BracketEdge is built to find.
03 Recommended Workflow
How to build your bracket, start to finish
Work through the tabs in order. Each decision sets up the next one.
1
Start Here
Pick Your Champion First
Your champion is the single pick that affects your score the most. Head to the
Champion tab and look at who the model likes versus who
the public is flocking to. Most top teams will be heavily picked, so there's
not much upside in going with the crowd. Look for a team with
positive leverage of 5+ that you still feel good
about. If no unpopular team jumps out, pick the highest-probability team and
accept that you're playing it safe.
2
Navigate
Fill In Your Regions
Go to the Regions tab and work through each region
round by round. Hover over any team to see their numbers. Don't just pick
whoever has the best odds. Ask whether the leverage makes the upset worth
taking. A team at 60% with +18 leverage is often a better pick than one at
65% with -5 leverage, because the second team is already in most brackets.
3
Key Decision
Take at Least One Unpopular Pick Per Region
A bracket that matches the crowd perfectly can only win by luck. Try to find
at least one pick per region where you're going against the grain:
leverage of +10 or higher, with odds you can
defend. The 5 vs. 12 and 6 vs. 11 matchups historically produce the most
surprises. Not all of these will hit, but you only need a couple to break
your way to separate from the pack.
4
Navigate
Lock In Your Final Four
The Final Four tab shows each semifinal with the same
data. These games are worth the most points, so a good call here matters more
than almost anything in the earlier rounds. If you picked a bold champion,
make sure your Final Four path actually gets them there. Don't take a big
swing on a champion and then pick all chalk getting to that point.
5
Review
Check the Summary Before You're Done
The Summary page gives your bracket an overall score
based on how much it differs from the public field. It highlights your boldest
picks and flags anywhere you're going with the crowd into a high-risk spot.
If your whole bracket looks like the average ESPN submission, go back and
reconsider a few games. The goal isn't to be wild. It's to be different in
the right spots.
04 Pool Size Strategy
How bold you should be depends on your pool
A 10-person office pool and a 500-entry contest require very different approaches.
In a small pool, one good call can win it. In a massive contest, you need several
unpopular picks to hit to even have a shot at the top.
Small Pool
10–30 Entries
- One bold Final Four pick is often enough to win
- Your champion can be popular if your path there is different from everyone else's
- Aim for 2 to 3 high-leverage picks spread across the bracket
- Don't overthink it. Small pools reward a couple good calls, not a complete overhaul
Medium Pool
50–100 Entries
- An unpopular champion pick gives you real ceiling
- Aim for a different path in at least two regions
- Look for high-leverage picks in Elite Eight matchups where the crowd is one-sided
- Mix one or two chalk picks with several bold ones to stay competitive if your upsets don't hit
Large Contest
500+ Entries
- Your champion should be a team fewer than 20% of people are picking
- Pick a few long-shot teams in the same bracket so if one hits, your whole bracket gets a boost
- Accept that most of your brackets won't cash. You're swinging for the top
- Focus on finishing in the money, not just finishing above average
05 About the Numbers
Where does this data come from?
The win probabilities come from a statistical model trained on 20+ years of NCAA
Tournament games. It looks at how efficient each team has been, how they were
regarded before the season started, and whether they've improved or slipped heading
into March.
⚠️
The model doesn't know about late-season injuries, matchup quirks, or which team
is playing closer to home. It's a starting point, not a final answer. Trust your
gut on the things numbers can't capture. BracketEdge gives you better information
to start from.
How the model works (for the curious)
+
Factor 1
Season Efficiency
How many points a team scores and gives up per possession, adjusted for
the quality of opponents they faced. The single strongest predictor of
tournament outcomes.
Factor 2
Preseason Expectations
Where each team was ranked before the season began. A proxy for talent,
depth, and experience that pure efficiency numbers sometimes miss.
Factor 3
Momentum
How much a team improved from the start of the season to Selection Sunday.
Teams peaking at the right time have historically outperformed their raw numbers.
BracketEdge · Built on KenPom + 20 years of tournament data · v5b Model